统计学案例分析第九章 案例分析

客乐饭店饮料营业额月饮料营业额（千元）yt⑵移动平均数Mt(2)(Tt)⑶季节比率ytStItTt⑷年 月⑴242近3年 1235223231784184514061457176.375001528177.375001109178.1250013010179.3750015211180.3750020612181.12500263近2年 1182.000002382182.875002473183.750001934184.250001935184.875001496186.500001577188.250001618189.708331229191.1666713010192.4166716711193.6250023012194.79167281近1年 1195.625002552196.541672653197.250002054198.166672105199.166671606199.62500166717481269148101731123512两种计算季节指数方法比较：以上计算结果重新排列0.8221120.8569420.6175440.7247390.8426891.1373361.4450551.3014351.3442181.0474901.0439490.7989280.8339970.8486710.6381870.6756170.8624921.1807491.4364221.2974351.3434731.0344831.0543930.801503月份123456789101112趋势剔除法季节指数按月平均法季节指数144.13%139.65%130.00%129.35%134.44%132.19%104.14%102.34%104.96%104.29%80.06%79.77%82.84%83.15%85.32%86.53%62.81%63.61%70.05%72.49%85.30%87.41%115.95%119.22%再来分析季节变动情况。

营业额的季节变动测定季节比率的平均数Sj⑸季节指数调整系数S*j⑹12Sj1.000423Sj82.81%85.28%62.79%70.02%85.26%115.90%144.07%129.94%134.38%104.10%104.92%80.02%11.994928S*j82.84%85.32%62.81%70.05%85.30%115.95%144.13%130.00%134.44%104.14%104.96%80.06%12.000000月份趋势剔除法季节指数来年营业额预测2121144.13%2130.00%3134.44%4104.14%5104.96%680.06%782.84%885.32%962.81%1070.05%1185.30%12115.95%305.5656784275.5967276285.015652220.7824103222.5182938169.717359175.6218169180.8713954133.1637093148.5004833180.8255903245.8208837305.57275.6285.02220.78222.52169.72175.62180.87133.16148.5180.83245.82