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贵州茅台DCF估值

2022-08-03 来源:好走旅游网
项目(单位:百万元)一、流动资产货币资金交易性金融资产预测计算方法20021,780.310.000.000.0037.020.000.0051.919.1742.7445.850.6645.206.123.270.001,077.901.281,076.6120032,340.050.000.000.0046.540.000.0038.0410.5527.49121.191.33119.876.180.250.001,216.291.281,215.0120042,898.330.000.000.00115.370.000.0044.4613.1831.2830.721.5529.174.740.000.001,695.031.281,693.7420053,891.990.000.000.00159.670.000.0055.0211.3443.6953.322.0851.2412.390.000.001,861.831.281,860.5520064,463.100.000.000.00185.650.000.0079.9712.5367.4457.371.9455.434.240.000.001,975.991.281,974.7120074,722.710.000.000.00101.050.003.5858.2211.8146.4188.162.0486.116.830.000.002,306.101.282,304.822008E7,483.280.000.000.00298.110.000.72107.1920.1587.04119.323.50115.819.950.000.003,702.792.263,700.532009E10,599.290.000.000.00442.370.000.86135.9025.51110.39166.074.65161.4113.860.000.004,957.912.974,954.942010E15,209.650.000.000.00593.850.001.03195.5937.23158.36231.496.40225.0918.910.000.006,869.714.096,865.622011E22,083.580.000.000.00772.860.001.24268.8650.84218.02321.579.02312.5526.660.000.009,630.115.779,624.342012E31,816.440.000.000.001,008.890.001.49375.1171.00304.11447.0812.48434.6036.880.000.0013,343.697.9813,335.72来自债务【预测值】交易性金融资产*【交易性减:交易性金融资产减值金融资产减值准备比例预准备测值】交易性金融资产净额构稽计算营业收入*【应收票据/营应收票据业收入预测值】应收股利【预测值】应收利息【预测值】营业收入*【应收账款/营应收账款业收入预测值】应收账款*【应收账款坏账减:应收账款坏账准备准备比例预测值】应收账款净额构稽计算营业收入*【应收账款/营其他应收款业收入预测值】其他应收账款*【其他应收账款坏账准备比例预测值减:其他应收款坏账准备】其他应收账款净额构稽计算营业成本*【预付账款/营预付账款业成本预测值】应收补贴款【预测值】期货保证金【预测值】营业成本*【存货/营业成存货本预测值】存货*【存货跌价准备比例减:存货跌价准备预测值】存货净额构稽计算其中:消耗性生物资产(营业费用+管理费用)*【待摊费用/营业费用+管理待摊费用费用预测值】一年内到期的流动资产【预测值】其他流动资产【预测值】 加:其他流动资产合计构稽计算二、非流动资产合计可供出售金融资产【预测值】可供出售金融资产*【可供减:可供出售金融资产减出售金融资产减值准备比值准备例预测值】可供出售金融资产净额构稽计算持有至到期投资【预测值】持有至到期投资*【持有至减:持有至到期投资减值到期投资减值准备比例预准备测值】持有至到期投资净额构稽计算投资性房地产【预测值】投资性房地产*【投资性房减:投资性房地产减值准地产减值准备比例预测值备】投资性房地产净额构稽计算长期股权投资【预测值】长期股权投资*【长期股权减:长期股权投资减值准投资减值准备比例预测值备】长期股权投资净额构稽计算固定资产原值减:累计折旧固定资产净值来自资本投资固定资产减值*【固定资产减:固定资产减值准备减值准备比例预测值】固定资产净额来自资本投资工程物资来自资本投资在建工程来自资本投资在建工程*【在建工程减值减:在建工程减值准备准备比例)预测值】在建工程净额来自资本投资固定资产清理【预测值】生产性生物资产【预测值】生产性生物资产*【生产性减:生产性生物资产减值生物资产减值准备比例)预准备测值】生产性生物资产净额构稽计算油气资产【预测值】油气资产*【油气资产减值减:油气资产减值准备准备比例)预测值】油气资产净额构稽计算无形资产来自资本投资无形资产*【无形资产减值减:无形资产减值准备准备比例)预测值】无形资产净额构稽计算开发支出【预测值】商誉【预测值】商誉*【商誉减值准备比减:商誉减值准备例)预测值】商誉净额构稽计算长期应收款【预测值】长期待摊费用来自资本投资递延所得税资产【预测值】其他非流动资产【预测值】 加:其他非流动资产合计构稽计算 加:其他资产总计构稽计算四、流动负债短期借款来自债务交易性金融负债【预测值】营业成本*【应付票据/营应付票据业成本预测值】营业成本*【应付账款/营应付账款业成本预测值】应付短期债券【预测值】营业收入*【预收账款/营预收账款业收入预测值】应付职工薪酬【预测值】应付股利【预测值】应交税金【预测值】应付利息【预测值】0.000.000.000.002,991.260.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.004.000.004.00596.48123.99472.492.39470.100.00442.900.00442.900.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.420.000.420.000.000.000.000.0022.220.000.000.00939.650.003,930.910.000.000.0024.210.00452.5241.0055.58320.850.000.650.000.000.003,756.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.004.000.004.00624.96181.76443.212.39440.810.00721.650.00721.650.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.260.000.260.000.000.000.000.0033.610.000.000.001,200.340.004,956.370.000.000.0040.000.00745.3725.371.21415.170.000.000.000.000.004,772.640.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.009.820.009.82971.39253.51717.872.35715.5210.99776.050.00776.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.0037.700.0037.700.000.000.000.000.0050.940.000.000.001,601.010.006,373.650.000.000.0035.780.001,036.8930.2717.44592.840.000.000.000.000.006,019.520.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0010.240.0010.241,301.89318.17983.722.34981.3819.11909.890.00909.890.000.000.000.000.000.000.0057.070.0057.070.000.000.000.000.0060.380.000.000.002,038.080.008,057.600.000.000.0030.330.001,543.2047.6337.18910.870.000.000.000.000.006,750.570.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0011.490.0011.491,627.43402.891,224.542.341,222.2047.441,179.880.001,179.880.000.000.000.000.000.000.0066.090.0066.090.000.000.000.000.0068.460.000.0042.772,638.340.009,388.920.000.000.0040.810.002,136.1444.420.00799.890.000.000.000.000.007,271.500.000.000.0058.000.0058.000.000.000.004.000.004.000.000.001,829.302.321,826.9811.93994.450.00994.450.000.000.000.000.000.000.00249.270.00249.270.000.000.000.000.0012.4852.850.000.003,209.970.0010,481.470.000.000.0059.680.001,125.2954.6041.81407.750.000.000.000.000.0011,695.430.000.000.0038.670.0038.670.000.000.006.500.006.500.000.000.000.0016,283.120.000.000.0045.110.0045.110.000.000.005.660.005.660.000.000.000.0023,072.520.000.000.0042.960.0042.960.000.000.005.940.005.940.000.000.000.0033,039.240.000.000.0043.680.0043.680.000.000.005.850.005.850.000.000.000.0046,938.110.000.000.0043.440.0043.440.000.000.005.880.005.882,754.574.592,749.9814.32552.380.00552.380.000.000.000.000.000.000.00296.300.00296.300.000.000.000.000.00-10.1335.230.0014.263,697.500.0015,392.930.000.000.0083.480.002,862.6250.050.00638.120.003,410.775.373,405.4017.18314.500.00314.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00352.800.00352.800.000.000.000.000.00-38.4941.110.0019.014,162.290.0020,445.410.000.000.00115.870.003,694.8450.630.00642.390.003,933.276.113,927.1518.42197.780.00197.780.000.000.000.000.000.000.00413.150.00413.150.000.000.000.000.00-73.7039.150.0011.094,581.950.0027,654.470.000.000.00161.570.004,922.3851.090.00633.220.004,351.636.874,344.7618.28134.150.00134.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00482.040.00482.040.000.000.000.000.00-115.4339.800.0014.784,967.900.0038,007.150.000.000.00224.450.007,085.9750.760.00617.690.004,646.497.304,639.1912.4582.380.0082.380.000.000.000.000.000.000.00563.540.00563.540.000.000.000.000.00-165.3839.580.0014.965,236.050.0052,174.160.000.000.00312.090.009,754.2050.850.00615.500.00其他应付款预提费用递延收益一年内到期的流动负债其他流动负债 加:其他流动负债合计五、非流动负债长期借款应付债券长期应付款专项应付款预计负债递延所得税负债其他非流动负债 加:其他非流动负债合计六、负债合计 加:其他负债总额七、股东权益合计股本【预测值】(营业费用+管理费用)*【预提费用/(营业费用+管理费用)预测值】【预测值】【预测值】【预测值】构稽计算长期借款+新增长期借款【预测值】【预测值】【预测值】【预测值】【预测值】【预测值】构稽计算127.453.550.000.000.0030.401,055.560.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.001,055.56275.00213.115.220.000.000.0040.091,485.540.000.000.000.300.000.000.000.000.300.001,485.84275.00396.047.450.000.000.0039.922,156.650.000.000.000.300.000.000.000.000.300.002,156.95393.25269.351.310.000.000.0055.332,895.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002,895.20471.90310.140.130.000.000.0062.363,393.890.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.003,393.89943.80423.500.000.000.000.000.002,112.620.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002,112.62943.80360.020.590.000.000.0039.234,034.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.004,034.10943.80372.860.460.000.000.0033.864,910.900.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.004,910.90943.80377.020.690.000.000.0024.366,170.340.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.006,170.34943.80372.801.040.000.000.0032.488,385.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.008,385.20943.80374.221.370.000.000.0030.2411,138.460.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0011,138.46943.80构稽计算股本预测值期初的资本公积金-上年度每股转增*上年度总股本+新股/增发/配股/可转债/期权行权引起的资本溢价期初的盈余公积金+净利润*【提取公积金比率预测值】期初未确认投资损失+本期未确认的投资损失期初来自利润分配表净利润*提取公积金比率期初总股本*每股派现金期初总股本*每股送红股期初未分配利润+净利润-提取盈余公积金-分配现金股利-分配普通股股利资本公积金减:库存股盈余公积金未确认的投资损失期初未分配利润加:净利润减:提取盈余公积金减:分配现金股利减:分配普通股股利未分配利润2,014.320.00275.280.002,014.480.00424.390.00288.24586.75149.1155.0027.50643.381,923.940.00648.560.00725.27820.55224.1782.500.001,239.151,203.40196.630.000.000.000.004,169.1547.560.004,216.710.006,373.650.001,846.120.00967.250.001,203.401,118.54318.69196.630.001,806.631,806.63141.570.000.000.000.005,091.9070.500.005,162.400.008,057.600.001,374.450.001,253.310.001,806.631,544.81286.05141.570.002,923.822,325.45660.660.000.000.000.005,897.0198.020.005,995.030.009,388.920.001,374.960.00838.320.002,325.452,830.83-414.98660.660.004,910.615,077.02789.020.000.000.000.008,234.11134.750.008,368.860.0010,481.470.001,374.961,374.961,374.961,374.961,374.961,452.920.005,077.023,611.79614.59789.020.007,285.207,285.201,186.000.000.000.000.0011,056.87301.950.0011,358.830.0015,392.930.002,238.520.007,285.205,122.27785.601,186.000.0010,435.8610,435.861,597.230.000.000.003,171.470.0010,435.867,209.59932.961,597.230.0015,115.2715,115.272,287.870.000.000.004,150.640.0015,115.279,960.72979.172,287.870.0021,808.9521,808.953,142.590.000.000.005,276.090.0021,808.9513,906.571,125.453,142.590.0031,447.4831,447.484,396.020.000.000.00未分配利润其中:拟分配现金股利其中:拟分配普通股股利外币报表折算差额【预测值】期初公允价值变动储备+公公允价值变动储备允价值变动储备 加:其他归属母公司股东权益合计构稽计算上期少数股东权益+本期少数股东权益288.2455.0027.500.000.000.002,852.8522.500.002,875.350.003,930.910.00725.2782.500.000.000.000.003,439.1431.380.003,470.520.004,956.370.0014,993.14541.3615,534.510.0020,445.410.0020,605.51878.6321,484.130.0027,654.470.0028,278.351,343.5929,621.940.0038,007.150.0039,042.331,993.3741,035.700.0052,174.160.00少数股东权益 加:其他股东权益合计构稽计算 加:其他八、负债和股东权益合计负债和股东权益合计平衡性检查构稽计算2013E45,344.05

0.00

0.000.001,539.77

0.001.07521.1098.69422.41621.8017.36604.4551.320.000.0018,560.9611.1018,549.87

2014E64,472.43

0.00

0.000.002,138.33

0.001.14724.75137.20587.55864.4724.15840.3271.380.000.0025,818.0915.4425,802.65

2015E91,232.75

0.00

0.000.002,926.86

0.001.191,007.62190.77816.851,202.0433.571,168.4799.220.000.0035,889.5421.4635,868.08

2016E128,596.41

0.00

0.000.004,026.39

0.001.221,401.12265.271,135.851,671.3946.681,624.71137.970.000.0049,905.8729.8449,876.03

2017E180,631.30

0.00

0.000.005,600.92

0.001.221,948.15368.831,579.322,323.9764.912,259.06191.840.000.0069,392.4241.4969,350.92

0.000.000.000.0066,512.92

0.000.000.0043.520.0043.520.000.000.005.870.005.87

0.000.000.000.0093,913.80

0.000.000.0043.490.0043.490.000.000.005.870.005.87

0.000.000.000.00

132,113.42

0.000.000.0043.500.0043.500.000.000.005.870.005.87

0.000.000.000.00

185,398.58

0.000.000.0043.500.0043.500.000.000.005.870.005.87

0.000.000.000.00

259,614.59

0.000.000.0043.500.0043.500.000.000.005.870.005.87

4,858.677.634,851.0412.5578.100.0078.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.00626.390.00626.390.000.000.000.000.00-200.9539.660.0013.615,469.79

0.0071,982.71

0.000.000.00434.020.0013,553.43

50.860.00624.720.00

5,027.147.905,019.2412.2072.320.0072.320.000.000.000.000.000.000.00692.410.00692.410.000.000.000.000.00-239.1239.630.0014.455,660.50

0.0099,574.30

0.000.000.00603.440.0018,883.59

50.840.00623.170.00

5,147.528.095,139.4311.2068.410.0068.410.000.000.000.000.000.000.00760.330.00760.330.000.000.000.000.00-279.2439.640.0014.345,803.50

0.00

137,916.92

0.000.000.00839.060.0026,233.14

50.850.00621.990.00

5,212.208.195,204.01

9.7664.810.0064.810.000.000.000.000.000.000.00829.770.00829.770.000.000.000.000.00-320.3539.640.0014.135,891.14

0.00

191,289.71

0.000.000.001,166.68

0.0036,479.98

50.850.00621.700.00

5,218.518.205,210.31

8.0562.070.0062.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.00899.320.00899.320.000.000.000.000.00-361.3339.640.0014.315,921.74

0.00

265,536.32

0.000.000.001,622.20

0.0050,728.39

50.850.00622.060.00

374.211.930.000.000.0029.0315,068.20

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0015,068.20943.80

373.982.690.000.000.0030.5820,568.28

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0020,568.28943.80

374.103.720.000.000.0029.9528,152.81

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0028,152.81943.80

374.085.180.000.000.0029.8538,728.32

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0038,728.32943.80

374.077.200.000.000.0030.1353,434.90

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0053,434.90943.80

1,374.961,374.961,374.961,374.961,374.96

7,725.100.0031,447.4819,369.912,449.024,396.02

0.0043,972.3543,972.356,119.08

0.000.00

0.00

10,896.980.0043,972.3526,951.563,171.886,119.08

0.0061,632.9561,632.958,516.02

0.000.00

0.00

15,045.030.0061,632.9537,521.224,148.048,516.02

0.0086,490.1186,490.1111,854.91

0.000.00

0.00

20,620.390.0086,490.1152,213.005,575.3711,854.91

0.00121,272.83121,272.8316,497.21

0.000.00

0.00

28,500.550.00

121,272.8372,643.597,880.1516,497.21

0.00169,539.07169,539.0722,952.27

0.000.00

0.00

54,016.222,898.3056,914.51

0.0071,982.71

0.00

74,848.704,157.3279,006.02

0.0099,574.30

0.00

103,853.905,910.21109,764.11

0.00137,916.92

0.00

144,211.998,349.41152,561.40

0.00191,289.71

0.00

200,358.3811,743.05212,101.43

0.00265,536.32

0.00

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